Environmental prospective analysis for the sulphurous waters recovery in the Cienfuegos oil refinery

Abstract

The objective of the environmental prospective analysis for the sulphurous water at the Oil refinery is to visualize the possible future scenarios that allow complying with the emissions standards. To achieve that the author created a methodology based on the Michel Godet´s one. Nine experts were selected with the use of Delphi method. These experts made a diagnosis to the industry with the use of a DAFO Matrix. The results place the industry in an adaptive position, and an overall problem was identified and the possible solution proposed. Then, the author used the methods MIC-MAC and MACTOR, as to know the variables and key actors respectively. While the SMIC method, with the support of the hypotheses proposed composed a total of sixty four scenarios, of which it was possible to choose  the most desirable, even when it is the most likely to occur. Six technological variants were identified to achieve a sustainable hydro-treating process.

Keywords: emissions, scenarios, prospective, refining, sustainable.